Estimating the probability of shielding failure on transmission lines, following the CIGRE method.
Overhead ground wires are meant to intercept lightning before it reaches the phase conductors. Shielding failure is what happens when a stroke gets past them and terminates on a conductor anyway — the geometry of the tower, the position of the shield wires, and the current magnitude of the stroke together decide whether that is possible.
This is an estimate of how often it happens, worked through using CIGRE’s method.
Archived, and currently a stub — the repository holds the problem statement rather than a finished analysis.